Tomorrow's Stars

Latest Census data show surging growth outside core megapolitans

The Census Bureau just released its numbers for the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. Accounting for two-thirds of the U.S. population, those 100 MSAs show some interesting trends.
First, big doesn't necessarily mean slow-growing. Of the 15 largest metros (see below), six have double digit population growth since 2000: Dallas-Fort Worth (16.3%) ; Houston (17.5%); DC metro (10.3%); Atlanta (21.0%); Phoenix (24.2%); and Riverside (23.7). Cumulatively, those six fast growers added 4.6 million new residents. The other 9 big metros added just 2.4 million new residents.

Big 15 Metros >> 2006 Population
1 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA >> 18,818,5362
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA >> 12,950,1293
3 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI >> 9,505,7484
4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX >> 6,003,9675
5 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD >> 5,826,7426
6 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX >> 5,539,9497
7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL >> 5,463,8578
8 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV >> 5,290,4009
9 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA >> 5,138,22310
10 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI >> 4,468,96611
11 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH >> 4,455,21712
12 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA >> 4,180,02713
13 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ >> 4,039,18214
14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA >> 4,026,13515
15 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA >> 3,263,497
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Looking at these numbers through the lens of megapolitan areas, it's striking to note the strong showing of Texas in the top megas. Looking at the numbers and the growth rate for Texas, the big three megas of NYC-Philly, Los Angeles-San Diego, and Chicago-Milwaukee have pretty good competition.
On a map, Dallas and Houston and San Antonio may look far apart, but the reality is they are strongly tied together. In addition to large, fast moving interstates (running between metros), another significant linkage is air travel. Like the heavily used Amtrack on the East Coast, Southwest Airlines, the maverick short haul, no-frills air carrier based in Dallas, has grown over the decades by providing continuous flights between the Lone Star state's major metros. It has provided a level of air passenger service that is only now catching on across the country.
Aided by such linkages and a ballooning population, Dallas-Fort Worth could be bigger than Chicago in a generation. And Houston wouldn't be far behind. And with San Antonio and Austin growing both growing at double digit clips, Texas could become a dominating Third Coast. In fact, by 2030, the Texas Triangle is projected to have 24 million residents. By comparison, estimates for sprawling and densely populated Southern California (anchored by Los Angeles-San Diego) are not much higher at 27.8 million people. GEO

Brainy Burgs

New research on why some cities thrive in the knowledge economy

The Work Foundation out of the U.K., today announced the start of phase II of its research into so-called knowledge cities, aka Ideopolises. The phase I findings are availalbe in a 108-page report.

That initial report states that Ideopolises are characterised by:
• High levels of economic success
• High levels of knowledge intensity based on The Work Foundation’sdefinition of knowledge intensity
• A diverse industry base including distinctive specialist niches
• One or more universities that have a mutually beneficial relationship withthe city, leading to industries built on research strengths, transfer ofknowledge to businesses and the retention of graduates
• Strong communications infrastructure and good transport links withinthe city and to other cities, including by air, rail and road
• A distinctive long-term ‘knowledge city’ offer to investors and individuals alike, created by public and private sector leaders
• Strategies to ensure that all communities benefit from the economicsuccess associated with knowledge.

According to Alexandra Jones, associate director at The Work Foundation, this new round of research will "examine in detail how cities can play to their strengths against this background - how they can build a sense of place and a distinctive offer for their citizens, how they can collaborate with other cities, and how they can foster multi-agency working to achieve their goals." GEO

Oil Boom Towns

Black gold buys metropolitan status

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 11, 2007, that a plan was unveiled for a 68-story skyscraper in Dubai where each floor rotates every 90 minutes. The architect, David Fisher, calls it "dynamic architecture." The newspaper reported that Fisher's eureka moment came as he listened to a friend in Florida talk about the large difference in pricing for condos that face the ocean and those that do not.
Fisher's design team includes Leslie Robertson, the innovator behind the World Trade Center design. Interestingly, the designers don't seem to anticipate large construction costs, and argue their design is rather straightforward, it just looks different. All except the all important issue of plumbing. WSJ quotes Robertson as saying, "We have good people working on that." Indicating, in as many words, that it's a technical challenge.



Dubai Marina at night.


The fact that the designers are targetting Dubai, one of the 7 emirates of the UAE, is a reflection of the building boom going on in the tiny Middle Eastern nation. Understanding that oil wealth will not last forever, the country's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is looking to shape Dubai into a world financial center, and tourist haven.
The country is set to debut the region's first commodities futures exchange, in a joint venture with NYMEX. The commodity the so-called Dubai Merc will focus on first is, of course, oil. Specifically, the Dubai Merc hopes to become a trading center for Arabian Gulf sour crude, the flavor of oil that makes up much of the world's energy markets. Already Dubai crude is a benchmark for Middle Eastern oil flowing to the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, NYMEX in the U.S. has a huge market based on setting prices for benchmarks Brent crude (from the North Atlantic Sea) and West Texas Intermediate (from West Texas).
To house its burgeoning non-petroleum industry, the country is undergoing a building boom. [Emporis lists 1,087 buildings in Dubai.] It is in the process of building what will be world's largest building, the Burj Dubai (2,300 feet tall; ETA: 2009), and is planning another building known as "The Burj," meaning "the tower" which would be 3,281-feet tall, or 1 kilometer!
Just 90 miles away from Dubai another boom town is forming in Abu Dhabi, a fellow UAE member.
With a similar story to Dubai, Abu Dhabi also hopes to become a regional hotspot. A Fortune Magazine article recently named Abu Dhabi the "richest city in the world." [Author: Barney Gimbel] The reason: Abu Dhabi's 420,000 citizens, excluding foreign workers, have an average net worth of $17 million each. [Emporis lists 215 buildings in Abu Dhabi.]
Just 15 minutes away from one another by plane, Fortune article points out a friendly rivalry between Dubai and Abu Dhabi. So far, however, Dubai has won the public relations campaign, drawing the bulk of recognition. And in March 2007, Halliburton, famous/infamous for its Vice President Dick Cheney affiliation, announced it would move its corporate headquarters to Dubai--although its 12,000 workers at its current HQ in Houston, Texas, would stay put. GEO